Monte Carlo or Bust

Monte Carlo or Bust

Simple Simulations for Aspiring Sports Bettors

Joseph Buchdahl


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Almost everyone is familiar with Monte Carlo's association with gambling, and its famous Casino. Many may also have come across the Monte Carlo fallacy, so-called after the Casino's roulette wheel ball fell on black 26th times in a row, costing players, who believed that the law of averages made such streaks impossible, millions of dollars. However, the Casino also lends its name to a tool of statistical forecasting, the Monte Carlo simulation, used to model the probability of uncertain outcomes that cannot be easily predicted from mathematical equations.

This book provides a detailed account for how aspiring sports bettors can use a Monte Carlo simulation to improve the quality, and hopefully profitability, of their betting, and in doing so unravels the mystery of probability and variance that lies at the heart of all gambling.

Praise for Joseph Buchdahl

'Joseph delivers on his promise to familiarise anybody with an interest in betting or investing with the workings of the betting mind through an abundance of practical examples' - Pinnacle

'Ranks amongst the more important books on sports betting' - Betfair Pro Trader


Joseph Buchdahl:
For 20 years, Joseph Buchdahl has worked as a betting analyst, providing historical sports data and betting odds through his websites and He is the author of Fixed Odds Sports Betting, How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar, Squares & Sharps, Suckers and Sharks and Monte Carlo or Bust published by High Stakes Publishing, and has been a regular contributor for the online sportsbook Pinnacle, with over 60 betting-related articles. He continues to tweet regularly via 12Xpert.